Signed into law on Aug. 29, Texas House Bill 4 is expected to turn five Democratic seats to Republicans, bumping the GOP incumbent majority from 65% to 79% of Texas seats, according to the Texas Tribune. With voter registration data indicating that Republicans make up around half of Texas’ voters, critics argue it is a clear case of the Republican party gerrymandering the state of Texas before the 2026 midterm elections.
Gerrymandering allows state governments to turn a population minority into a representative majority through strategic district drawings. This involves the suppression of minority votes by splitting their population up through a process called cracking. Conversely, minority votes favoring the opposing party may also be suppressed through packing, when a minority is overloaded into one district to take away competition from neighboring ones.
Federal law mandates that the districts, which are drawn by state legislatures, are rebalanced every ten years in accordance with the U.S. census so that districts retain similar populations to ensure equal federal representation. However, congressional districts may also be redrawn mid-decade, usually due to gerrymandering.
Mary Ibarra is a political coordinator at the American Civil Liberties Union’s (ACLU) Texas chapter. Gerrymandering is a central concern of the ACLU, which seeks to preserve the rights and political autonomy of American citizens and pushes for nonpartisan redistricting.
“Having partisan motivations isn’t illegal,” Ibarra said. “It’s not something that we condone… They’ve resulted in maps that don’t have equal representation for voters of color. Our biggest takeaway is, no matter how you cut it, it’s really harmed a lot of communities that we try to represent and advocate for.”
Hispanic and Black votes are likely to go for Democrats, meaning that when their influence is limited in districts, it increases the number of seats Republicans can win. Chris Perkins, a Republican pollster whose work informed the drawing of the congressional maps in Texas’ 2003 redistricting, defended the packing of minorities into majority-minority districts.
“There are more minority opportunity districts than there were on the previous map,” Perkins said. “There are more majority minority districts on this map than there were in the previous.”
Some Republican personalities have defended gerrymandering by pointing out that Democrats engage in gerrymandering, too. Perkins in particular argued that Democrats are guilty of the ongoing national trend towards districts weighted to create partisan advantages.
“Republicans in Congress are mirroring exactly what Democrats have done, especially in the state of New York… Massachusetts, and Maryland,” Perkins said. “Democrats don’t like when Republicans are in charge and will intentionally draw Democratic districts, but when Republicans do it, that’s wrong.”
Through a two-week exodus to blue states such as Illinois and New York, Texas House Democrats broke the quorum during the first special session called to vote on HB-4 and brought national attention to HB-4, halting deliberations by denying the attendance required to pass the bill. Though the session was adjourned, the Texas legislature issued arrest warrants to return the Democrats to Texas for the necessary two-thirds attendance ratio, culminating in HB-4 being passed and backlash from Republicans like Perkins.
“That’s their right,” Perkins said. “There is a quorum breaking process, and if they decide they want to halt the process, okay—it is what it is. Ultimately, they can’t stay away forever. They’ve gotta come back and vote on what they think is best for their constituents.”
Shortly before the return of Texas’ Democratic legislators, the California State Legislature proposed Proposition 50, a ballot measure that would change five of California’s congressional seats to Democratic majorities meant to counterbalance Texas’ redistricting. Since California law prevents a majority in their House from approving their own gerrymandering, the bill would be put to a statewide vote in a November special election rather than a vote by the state legislature.
Jennifer Lyons-Hunt teaches U.S. History at Austin Community College and is an active member of the Democratic Party. She is one of the activists calling into question the legality of Texas’ latest gerrymandering attempt for several reasons, one of which is the president’s involvement, as he commented in an interview with CNBC that the Republican Party was entitled to these seats.
“This is the party kowtowing to the president because he said he wanted these seats,” Lyons-Hunt said. “It’s unconstitutional. I think it’s a gross overreach of the executive branch. He has merged the two. The legislative branch are his henchmen, they’re not there to keep him in check, which is what they’re supposed to do.”
Groups like the NAACP, League of United Latin American Citizens, and the Fair Maps Texas Action Committee are also challenging the legality of HB-4 in court. Should HB-4 withstand review, it will change legal precedent for redistricting. Lyons-Hunt believes it will snowball into further aggressive gerrymandering on both sides of the aisle.
“You can essentially steal seats,” Lyons-Hunt said. “Then anybody can do it. Republicans are shortsighted on that; that means in a blue state, the Democrats could do it and gain more seats for them.”
One motivation for Texas Republicans to redistrict is the coming 2026 congressional elections. Although Donald Trump was elected with a popular majority in 2024, his popularity has dipped since, with The Economist reporting a 39% approval rating, suggesting the establishment of a Democratic majority after the 2026 midterm elections.
“We’re very much in a gray zone,” Ibarra said. “Is partisan redistricting going to happen after every big election as opposed to how it has typically been done in the past?”
The legal precedent of this bill has varying outcomes to political processes for redistricting and political rights. While this could determine outcomes of elections, Lyons-Hunt believes this does not negate the importance of votes and civic participation.
“You turn 18, and it is absolutely your job to vote,” Lyons-Hunt said. “Any state is up for grabs if people just show up.”